The Cult of I-AA: The I-AA stock market
But like a stock market, the value of that win doesn't set the market for I-AA respectability by itself. In fact, when Michigan lost the next week to Oregon by an even wider margin, some of the luster of the App State win started to fade. It won't take away from the power of the moment or the immense boost in exposure for Appalachian itself, but for I-AA as a whole, Michigan's record this season is a tangible barometer of how I-AA, represented in this case by its defending two-time champion, is looked at by the rest of "major" college football fans. Sort of like how all your college buddies will judge your dating record from "back in the day" by how those women look at homecoming. "Seriously, dude," you protest, "she's had like four kids. She was hot. Don't act like you don't remember. This is bullshit." Coming to the rescue have been a slew of other I-AA squads. Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois and New Hampshire have posted impressive wins over I-A stalwarts (including I-AA to I-A poster boy Marshall). McNeese State knocked off a I-A from the Wannabe Division, Louisiana-Lafayette. Even the Citadel, a perennial stepchild in the Southern Conference since the early 1990s, gave another Big 10 team, Wisconsin, a fright. Don't expect Big 10 teams to come calling the SoCon again anytime soon. Like this century. The chances for the I-A/I-AA comparison to play out on the field start to go away by the fourth full week of the season. North Dakota State has two I-A games left against Central Michigan (which falls somewhere between a Wannabe and a Field Filler) and Minnesota (a full-blown Field Filler). UMass has the Cult's last chance at a tremendous upset when they face Boston College, a school that almost qualifies for Icon Status. Georgia Southern finishes its season with Field Filler Colorado State and there are a few more I-A vs. I-AA matchups, but for the most part, it's time to get into Cult versus Cult play. Overall, the lower division has acquitted itself better this year than in any since the Citadel knocked off Arkansas and South Carolina in the glory days. The App State win has I-AA stock at an all-time high, but counting on the Powers That Be to capitalize on that and the interdivisional moratorium for some truly innovative enhancements to the Cult is probably asking too much. Oh well, a High Priest can dream. Speaking of fluctuating values… First of all, everyone who has even an inkling of knowledge about how I-AA works knows that polls mean bupkus to how the Cult champion is crowned. Conference champions earn automatic bids to the NCAA I-AA football playoffs and the rest are assigned by guys in suits, who invariably use computer rankings to explain how each year the big conferences slip in a third team when some smaller conference gets hosed because said smaller conference doesn't have their own suit in the room (or their suit doesn't have as many friends). It's like the basketball tournament, only with less coverage. But polls are particularly ineffective until around October. In fact, this week's poll might be the most useless poll of the season. That's because most Cult teams have only played one game within their division through the first three weeks. A preseason poll would be great for setting the season's expectations. Waiting until the first games of October were played to begin releasing weekly polls would be the next step in the right direction. By then, almost every team in the Cult would have five or six games on record – enough to not only distinguish a squad by won-loss record, but also by how many playmakers are emerging on the team. Polls are sticky creatures because particularly early on, teams with high expectations get big breaks for beating marginal teams and little penalty for losing to I-A squads—even Wannabes! It's pretty easy to argue that Montana and UMass, ranked 2/3 most of the season, should be ranked 9/8 respectively. In fact, here's how I rank the top 10 based on granting greater mobility in the polls for on-the-field accomplishments or lack thereof. We'll compare the High Priest's Ranking (HPR) with the FCS media poll, coaches' poll and Sagarin ratings. Full disclosure: I did these rankings prior to looking at the Sagarin numbers, but not before peeking at the current FCS and Coaches' polls. Team HPR FCS Coaches Sagarin Average (rank) Appalachian State 1 1 1 1 1.0 (1) Southern Illinois 2 7 6 4 4.75 (4) Northern Iowa 3 4 5 2 3.5 (2) McNeese State 4 6 8 8 6.5 (T-6) James Madison 5 8 9 17 9.75 (9) New Hampshire 6 10 10 15 10.25 (10) North Dakota State 7 5 4 11 6.5 (T-6) UMass 8 3 3 3 4.25 (3) Montana 9 2 2 10 5.75 (5) Youngstown State 10 9 7 6 8 (8) Considering that there are some big name lurkers in the 11-15 positions of both polls and the Sagarin ratings and that those same lurkers will be colliding with some of the names on this top 10, you don't have to be Master Splinter to see that the October 8 poll could look vastly different than this one. If the October 8th poll were the first since the preseason layout was announced, the following key "measuring stick" games would have been played before voters and coaches were allowed to again weigh in with their opinion of who the 25 best in the Cult were: Appalachian State @ Wofford Worth noting As the High Priest of I-AA, I am dubbing Southern Illinois the new name of "So Ill." It sounds like a Run DMC song and should be taken as a compliment. As in: "You remember when Brandon Jacobs played for the Salukis? He was so ill." Richmond is ranked fifth among I-AAs in the Sagarins and isn't in either Top 25 poll. The only other team to rank above JMU (the low Sagarin in the HPR/FCS/Coaches polls) and not be included in either Top 25 is Georgia Southern, ranked 16th. Notre Dame is 113 in the overall Sagarin ratings, good for 8th in I-AA. Two other teams in the Sagarin top 10 among I-AAs are Delaware (7) and Eastern Washington (9). The Colonial is the highest rated I-AA conference, followed by the Gateway. Appalachian State may be the poster child for I-AA's rising stock, but the Southern Conferenec it calls home is ranked fourth according to Jeff Sagarin. And computers compose the Sagarin ratings, so take them with a grain of salt. These are the same machines that make almost every phase of your life a little bit harder than it needs to be, even if you can't live without them. Subtle changes Pay attention and you'll notice that the Cult of I-AA is moving away from a regular Thursday/Friday feature of about 3,000 words like it was back in the i-aa.org days and is morphing into a 2-3 times a week feature of less words that should add up to about 3,000. That should jive with the High Priest's hectic schedule, which includes writing a play about Cult legend Erk Russell, other freelance writing, a full time job in the hectic (but rewarding) alcoholic beverage industry and planning for an Oct. 13 wedding. I'll be back late in the week with a call for more Cult Hall of Fame nominations (coaches this time), my weekend picks and the I-AA Fantasy All-Stars, who badly need a running back.
The Fed dropped interest rates today in more places and by a wider margin than anyone expected, brining some financial excitement to the markets that has been MIA all summer. The trickle effect of economic news should be familiar theory to I-AA football fans, who immediately saw the profile of Championship Division schools shoot through the roof when Appalachian State knocked off Michigan to open the college football season.
Still, we look at polls each week to measure our own team and the teams around us—particularly the ones our boys are going to be lining up against on Saturday. So in a utilitarian/marketing sort of way, the polls are good for business.
New Hampshire @ Richmond, v. Delaware
JMU v. Coastal Carolina, v. Villanova
Southern Illinois @ Youngstown
UMass @ Boston College
McNeese v. Sam Houston State
N Dakota State @ Central Michigan, @ W. Illinois
Montana v. Eastern Washington
Coming to theaters sometime near Halloween: Freddy vs. Jason vs. The UMassCot. Seriously, what the fuck? Does this thing really look like this? We need a "worst mascot costume" contest. Submit your photos here.
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